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NEWSLETTER 2020 Outlook – Through the Lens of Luxury Leaders 

We are in the middle of extremely turbulent times with unprecedented disruptions to consumer behaviour and supply chains across the globe from the covid-19 outbreak. At the time of writing this, some markets, like China, are bouncing back in to ‘life after covid’ mode where consumers are once again more

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FEATURED Jing Daily: Can “Revenge Spending” Save Luxury in China?

China is embracing springtime, as the COVID-19 outbreak continues to slow. On Thursday, China reported no new cases of domestic virus infections for the first time since the outbreak began, and recent new cases have mostly come from overseas, signaling that the worst has passed as of now. But as more residents go outside

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FEATURED The Straits Times: Global pandemic over by June if nations act firmly: China adviser

As it declares peak over in the country, China says others should learn from its efforts. BEIJING • The global coronavirus pandemic could be over by June if countries mobilise to fight it, Beijing’s senior medical officer said yesterday, as China declared that the peak had passed in the country

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FEATURED Vogue Business: The impact of coronavirus shifts west

The luxury industry faces a bleak 2020 as shop and manufacturing closures increase in Europe and the US. Key takeaways: The luxury sector is anticipating a prolonged downturn as the coronavirus pandemic continues to challenge the world economy and hit new markets. Many luxury groups and brands are seeking new

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FEATURED Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: Luxury back on Chinese’s shopping lists

As outbreak hiatus ends, ‘revenge spending’ emerges Chinese shoppers are slowly returning to the glitzy malls and boutiques where they’ve been driving growth of the global luxury industry as coronavirus quarantine measures relax. Store traffic in China is creeping back up after falling as much as 80% at the virus

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FEATURED Forbes: Could ‘Revenge Spending’ Help Retail Recover From Coronavirus?

Western retail is just beginning to feel the real effects of the coronavirus outbreak. Initially, some categories actually received a bizarre boost as panic-buying saw shoppers tussle over toilet paper at supermarkets and go crazy for cleaning products at Costco and canned goods at Trader Joe’s. But now we are seeing the second wave hit,

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FEATURED JingDaily: What Happens When Luxury Becomes too Accessible?

The Harvard Business Review released a new study questioning the “trickle-down effect” in luxury consumption while presenting an interesting new cultural phenomenon: Global elites need new ways to communicate their wealth and status. Since traditional status symbols such as Chanel bags and Dior accessories have become accessible to “the aspirational class,” the global elite is “skipping

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FEATURED Bloomberg: ‘Revenge Spending’ Spurs Chinese Luxury Rebound From Virus

Chinese shoppers are slowly returning to the glitzy malls and boutiques where they’ve been driving growth of the global luxury industry as coronavirus quarantine measures relax. Store traffic in China is creeping back up after falling as much as 80% at the virus outbreak’s peak there earlier this winter, hammering

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FEATURED Vogue Business: 时尚经济学 |通胀对奢侈品生意的利与弊

过去数十年里,中国已经成长为世界第二大的经济体,而中国的奢侈品产业也迎来快速发展期。不过当前情况导致市场发展停滞,也将严重影响全球经济的走势。 三月份以来,中国慢慢开始复工复产,但很难说商业活动和消费信心什么时候能恢复到正常水准。二月中旬,意大利奢侈品牌委员会 Altagamma 联合咨询公司 BCG、资产管理公司 Bernstein 推出调查显示,奢侈品牌高管预估 2020 年行业的整体利润将下滑 3084 亿元,不景气的情况或许要到 2021 年年初才会有所改善。 中国近年逐渐攀升的消费总数和消费信心曾经极大推动了奢侈品市场的发展,但这种好日子或许要到头了。当下,中国通货膨胀隐忧加剧。国家统计局的数据显示,中国居民消费物价指数(CPI)在 2020 年 1 月份同比上升至 5.4%,而 17 年 1 月仅为 1.5%,19 年全年的涨幅仅为 2% 到 3% 之间。2 月初,央行已推出一系列金融政策,希望减轻对中国经济的影响以及缓解通货膨胀的不良后果。 中国人民银行副行长潘功胜表示,“目前货币政策是加强逆周期调节,注重灵活适度,保持流动性合理充裕,为实体经济的发展提供稳健的货币政策与财政政策。” 通胀下,中产和高净值人群呈现不同的消费习惯 经济学一直有关于通货膨胀的讨论。大众认为通货膨胀对经济增长有消极的影响。然而这种论调忽略了一个常理,经济增长始终需要一定程度的通货膨胀来促进消费。事实上,经济学家普遍认为每年 2% 到 3% 的通胀率是健康的,它能提升企业利润率以及工资水平从而促进消费。 欧洲工商管理学院市场营销学副教授 David Dubois 博士表示,“我们普遍认为高通胀率会降低消费者的购买力,因此消费者购买奢侈品或享受型服务等非必需品的花费就会降低。” Dubois 博士的理论可以解释中产阶级的消费行为,因为这部分消费者对于价格趋于敏感,同时工资水平与可支配收入也低于高净值人群。根据麦肯锡的调研,2022 年中国的中产阶级将会达到 5.5 亿人。通货膨胀的经济形势会使得这部分消费者放弃购买大额商品,并更看重储蓄。而中产阶级消费者的减少,也会让本就因香港动荡局势而岌岌可危的奢侈品消费市场再陷重创。 不过,目前市场情况还无需恐慌,Dubois 博士也认为高通胀率或将促使高净值消费者把购买奢侈品当作一种投资形式。消费者学会不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,去购买汽车、酒类、艺术品、珠宝等商品来确保动荡时期资产的稳定。 “总体来看,高通胀对体验型奢侈品的影响会更大,奢侈品实体商品影响相对较小,但不同品类所受的影响程度也不同。顶级奢侈品的需求依然旺盛甚至呈增长趋势,价格更便宜的轻奢受高通胀的影响更大。当然影响程度还是取决于商品是否能被当成投资形式等因素,” Dubios

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FEATURED Vogue Business: Is the luxury industry threatened by China’s inflation?

Over the past number of decades, China has become the world’s second-largest economy and the fastest-growing market for the luxury industry. But the outbreak of Covid-19 is bringing things to a standstill, threatening to disrupt global economic growth. Entering March, the country is slowly returning to work. It remains to

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